Hurricane season in the United States can typically bring weather alerts, evacuations, and sometimes even widespread destruction. This year, however, hurricane season has been remarkably quiet. First, June went by without a hurricane . . . then July. August also passed by quietly. And September also ended with no storm either. This is highly unusual. In fact, this September was the first hurricane-free one on record. So, what’s up? Here, btw takes a closer look at what’s happening right now in the suspiciously quiet waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
What Does a Typical Hurricane Season Look Like?
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June through September. On average, there are usually about five hurricanes by the end of September, with only one to two in a typical October. There is a November hurricane in the Atlantic about once every three years.
Typically, September is the peak for tropical storm season in the Atlantic Ocean. That’s because ocean waters have been heating up all summer, and the cross-cutting winds that slow hurricane formation grow less powerful. But this year, an extremely strong El Nino system has changed that.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a cyclical climate phenomenon that happens when the surface of the ocean warms to above-average temperatures in some areas of the Pacific Ocean. When this water warms, it also changes how heat enters the atmosphere. This in turn causes changes to atmospheric currents that cause weather pattern changes all over the globe. Right now, in the Atlantic Ocean, the El Nino climate pattern has caused more air to push downward, which stifles the formation of hurricanes.
Because of this, eight tropical storms have formed in the waters of the Atlantic this season, but none of them progressed to hurricane status.
How Unusual Is This?
Until 2026, the latest start to the Atlantic hurricane season was September 11 (in 2002 and 2015). Since World War II ended in 1945, only three Septembers have had no hurricane: 1994, 1962, and 2026. In fact, the fewest number of hurricanes in any past hurricane season was two, which happened both in 1982 and 2013.
Does No Hurricane in September Mean More in October?
As it gets later in the year, the chance for hurricanes drops drastically as the surface temperature of the water falls. So, it’s possible that 2026 will be the first Atlantic hurricane season on record with no hurricane.
However, meteorologists and climate scientists point out that just because something hasn’t happened in the past doesn’t mean that it can’t happen now. Plus, tropical storms can be just as damaging as actual hurricanes. Tropical storms produce very heavy rainfall and can cause dangerous and costly flooding. It’s also important to note that while El Nino has caused a decline in tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean, it is having the reverse effect in the Pacific Ocean. Hawaii is currently experiencing one of its busiest storm seasons on record.